(And Why This Time It Felt Like a Bargain, Not a Mistake)

The Trade (Let’s Get the Facts Straight)

Today’s trade:
✔ Bought 2 shares of PRGS
✔ Execution price: $44.0724
✔ Capital deployed: ~$88

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Confession Time: I Broke My Own Rule

I have a simple personal policy:

Never double down. Never throw good money after bad.

That rule exists because it protects me from emotional decisions and sunk-cost fallacies.

And yet…

On 10/10/2023, I bought:

• 2 shares of PRGS at $54.03
• Total: $108.06

Today, I bought again — below that price.

Yes, this is technically doubling down.
Yes, this is me violating my own rule.

But here’s the key difference — and why I can live with it.

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This Doesn’t Feel Like Chasing — It Feels Like a Bargain

Back in 2023, I paid more for a company that was doing less.

Today:

• The company is doing much better
• Revenues are dramatically higher
• Earnings are strong
• The stock is still cheaper than my original entry

That creates a very specific psychological (and financial) feeling:

👉 I’m buying a better company at a better price.

That’s not revenge trading.
That’s opportunistic embarrassment management.

---

Let’s Talk Numbers (Because They Matter)

Here is what Progress Software has actually done on the revenue front:

• Revenue 2023: 694,439
• Revenue 2024: 753,409
• Revenue 2025: 977,831

That’s not noise. That’s a step-change.

From 2023 to 2025, revenue increased by over 40%.
This isn’t a turnaround story anymore — it’s an execution story.

The company is scaling, integrating acquisitions, and converting that scale into cash flow and earnings.

---

The Earnings That Triggered Today’s Buy

Today’s news wasn’t “pretty good.”
It was objectively strong:

• Revenue surged
• Earnings beat expectations
• Guidance confirmed momentum
• The market responded immediately (hence the +13% day)

This is exactly the kind of situation where I allow myself to bend rules — not because I’m optimistic, but because the data changed.

---

About That Forward P/E (Yes, It’s Real Enough)

I’ll admit it:
I love the way this stock looks on valuation screens.

A forward P/E around ~6.5 (as shown on Yahoo Finance) is eye-catching — especially for a profitable software company with recurring revenue and strong retention.

Is it perfect? No.
Is it “cheap for a reason”? Possibly.

But when a company:

• Is growing revenues aggressively
• Is profitable
• Is being rewarded by the market today

…a low forward multiple becomes an invitation to at least pay attention.

That’s all I’m doing here.

---

Why PRGS Fits the “Stock Waiting for Double Up” Bucket

This is not a conviction play.
It’s not a “bet the farm” idea.

It fits this category because:

• The position size is intentionally small
• The business fundamentals have improved materially
• A future price move could allow me to:
  • Sell part of the position
  • Recover my initial capital
  • Let the remaining shares ride as free shares

That’s the entire philosophy behind this category.

Not prediction.
Not bravado.
Just optionality.

---

What If I’m Wrong? (Because That’s Always Possible)

If PRGS stalls or drifts lower:

• I’m not adding again
• I’m not “defending” the position
• I’m not rewriting rules a second time

The loss would be contained and survivable — both financially and emotionally.

That’s the price of rule-breaking: you only get to do it once.

The Trade (Let’s Get the Facts Straight)

Today’s trade:
✔ Bought 2 shares of PRGS
✔ Execution price: $44.0724
✔ Capital deployed: ~$88

And let’s correct the record immediately:

📈 PRGS is UP about +13.8% today.
No slipping. No post-earnings disappointment.
The market liked the results — and it showed.

---

Confession Time: I Broke My Own Rule

I have a simple personal policy:

Never double down. Never throw good money after bad.

That rule exists because it protects me from emotional decisions and sunk-cost fallacies.

And yet…

On 10/10/2023, I bought:

• 2 shares of PRGS at $54.03
• Total: $108.06

Today, I bought again — below that price.

Yes, this is technically doubling down.
Yes, this is me violating my own rule.

But here’s the key difference — and why I can live with it.

---

This Doesn’t Feel Like Chasing — It Feels Like a Bargain

Back in 2023, I paid more for a company that was doing less.

Today:

• The company is doing much better
• Revenues are dramatically higher
• Earnings are strong
• The stock is still cheaper than my original entry

That creates a very specific psychological (and financial) feeling:

👉 I’m buying a better company at a better price.

That’s not revenge trading.
That’s opportunistic embarrassment management.

---

Let’s Talk Numbers (Because They Matter)

Here is what Progress Software has actually done on the revenue front:

• Revenue 2023: 694,439
• Revenue 2024: 753,409
• Revenue 2025: 977,831

That’s not noise. That’s a step-change.

From 2023 to 2025, revenue increased by over 40%.
This isn’t a turnaround story anymore — it’s an execution story.

The company is scaling, integrating acquisitions, and converting that scale into cash flow and earnings.

---

The Earnings That Triggered Today’s Buy

Today’s news wasn’t “pretty good.”
It was objectively strong:

• Revenue surged
• Earnings beat expectations
• Guidance confirmed momentum
• The market responded immediately (hence the +13% day)

This is exactly the kind of situation where I allow myself to bend rules — not because I’m optimistic, but because the data changed.

---

About That Forward P/E (Yes, It’s Real Enough)

I’ll admit it:
I love the way this stock looks on valuation screens.

A forward P/E around ~6.5 (as shown on Yahoo Finance) is eye-catching — especially for a profitable software company with recurring revenue and strong retention.

Is it perfect? No.
Is it “cheap for a reason”? Possibly.

But when a company:

• Is growing revenues aggressively
• Is profitable
• Is being rewarded by the market today

…a low forward multiple becomes an invitation to at least pay attention.

That’s all I’m doing here.

---

Why PRGS Fits the “Stock Waiting for Double Up” Bucket

This is not a conviction play.
It’s not a “bet the farm” idea.

It fits this category because:

• The position size is intentionally small
• The business fundamentals have improved materially
• A future price move could allow me to:
  • Sell part of the position
  • Recover my initial capital
  • Let the remaining shares ride as free shares

That’s the entire philosophy behind this category.

Not prediction.
Not bravado.
Just optionality.

---

What If I’m Wrong? (Because That’s Always Possible)

If PRGS stalls or drifts lower:

• I’m not adding again
• I’m not “defending” the position
• I’m not rewriting rules a second time

The loss would be contained and survivable — both financially and emotionally.

That’s the price of rule-breaking: you only get to do it once.

---

Final Thought

Today I did something slightly uncomfortable:

• I broke my “never double down” rule
• I bought again into a stock I already owned

But I did it:

• At a lower price
• With a stronger company
• After clearly positive earnings
• With a tiny, controlled amount of capital

That’s not discipline collapsing.
That’s discipline bending — carefully.

PRGS now sits comfortably in my Stock Waiting for Double Up list.

We’ll see if it earns its way out.

---

Final Thought

Today I did something slightly uncomfortable:

• I broke my “never double down” rule
• I bought again into a stock I already owned

But I did it:

• At a lower price
• With a stronger company
• After clearly positive earnings
• With a tiny, controlled amount of capital

That’s not discipline collapsing.
That’s discipline bending — carefully.

PRGS now sits comfortably in my Stock Waiting for Double Up list.

We’ll see if it earns its way out.